P-ISSN: 2964-0121
E-ISSN: 2963-3699
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DETERMINATION ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN PALM OIL
COMMODITIES IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ERA ON
INDONESIAN PER CAPITA GDP AND EXPORT TAX REVENUES
Ernesth Cancerio Reynaldo1*, Wahyu Murti2
Postgraduate Program, Student of Doctoral Program in Economics, Borobudur University, Indonesia1
Postgraduate Program, Lecturer of Doctoral Program in Economics, Borobudur University, Indonesia2
ec.reynaldo@gmail.com1*, wahyu[email protected].id2
PAPER INFO ABSTRACT
Received: 14th
Januari 2023
Revised: 17th
January 2023
Approved: 20th
January 2022
Background: The fundamental problem faced in the process of economic
transformation in Indonesia is that the GDP growth of the agricultural and
plantation sectors is still relatively low and the contribution of tax revenue
from exports has not been optimal, especially in the midst of the Covid-19
pandemic era.
Aim: The data is compiled in the form of panel data consisting of 10
provinces producing the largest production of palm oil in Indonesia and with
a time series of research period 2012-2021. The research model was
formulated as a linear model and analyzed recursively using linear regression
using the ordinary least squares method (OLS).
Method: This study uses the explanatory method to explain the causal
relationship in Indonesia's GDP growth model per capita and Indonesia's
export tax revenue through hypothesis testing.
Findings: The research findings are that production, selling prices, exchange
rates, and exports have a simultaneous effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita
and export tax revenues. In part, Indonesia's GDP per capita is more
determined by production, selling prices, and exchange rates. Meanwhile,
some export tax revenues are more influenced by production and selling
prices.
KEYWORDS
Production, Selling Price, Exchange Rate, Export, Indonesian GDP Per Capita,
Export Tax Revenue
INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease pandemic at the end of 2019 or better known
as Covid-19 which is thought to have originated from the city of Wuhan, China's Hubei
Province, which spread very quickly throughout the world. The number of positive cases is
increasing exponentially. From tens of patients in January 2020 to more than six million in
early June 2020 (World Health Organization 2021). After the determination of Covid-19 as a
pandemic, many countries carry out disease containment through restrictions on activities,
travel, and physical contact and even lockdowns. This activity restriction policy aims to reduce
the spread of the epidemic, but triggers a sharp weakening of the world economy, causing
supply chain disruptions, reducing production and public consumption activities, increasing
unemployment, and correcting economic growth (Schneeweiss, Murtaugh, and Economics
2020). The world economy is even predicted to grow negatively in 2020. The performance of
manufacturing and services weakened sharply, causing millions of people to lose their jobs.
The Indonesian government has taken steps through monetary and fiscal policies by
implementing ultra-accommodative policies on a scale that goes beyond the era of the global
financial crisis. On the one hand, these policies can withstand further economic downturn and
create financial market stability. But on the other hand, it also contains risks that need to be
observed and mitigated. Governments in various countries, especially emerging countries, need
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to maintain fiscal sustainability, monetary policy credibility, and continue structural reforms to
strengthen economic resilience in the face of various future risks.
In Indonesia, the agriculture and plantation sector is one of the sectors least affected by
the Covid-19 pandemic compared to other sectors. In the midst of the weakening of the national
economy due to the Covid-19 pandemic, agricultural and plantation exports continued to show
good performance (Yuana, Kholifah, and Anas 2020). This is evidenced that in April 2020
agricultural and plantation exports amounted to US$ 0.28 billion or grew 12.66% compared to
the same period last year (Warta Ekonomi online, 02 June 2020). According to the analysis of
the SGD's Center UNPAD, this is due to the minimal impact of social restrictions in the
agriculture and plantation sectors, although there are still risks from supply chain disruption
and declining demand (Yusuf et al. 2020). The impact of social restrictions on agriculture and
plantations is small because the centers of agricultural and plantation production are not in
densely populated areas, but in rural areas. In addition, agricultural and plantation commodities
have a low elasticity of demand, so there is no spike in demand in a short time. Indonesia's
economic data shows that the agricultural and plantation sectors can still grow positively during
the Covid-19 pandemic. Economic performance in the agriculture and plantation sectors was
able to grow by 1.77% (yoy) in 2020 and 1.84% (yoy) in 2021 where the Covid-19 pandemic
was in turmoil. Looking at the facts and existing data, the agriculture and plantation sector is
one of the mainstay candidates in revitalizing the Indonesian economy, especially in the 10
largest provinces in Indonesia that produce oil palm plantation commodities, namely the
provinces of Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Barat, Riau, Jambi, Sumatera Selatan,
Kalimantan Barat, Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Selatan, and Kalimantan Timur which can
provide opportunities for farmers to earn larger incomes in a short time. This sector has proven
to be a buffer sector during the 1997-1998 monetary crisis. To make the agricultural and
plantation sectors a leading sector to revive the Indonesian economy, a number of strategies
are needed.
Table 1. Production and Export Development of Oil Palm Plantation Commodities
in Indonesia in 2012-2021
Source: BPS data presented by researcher, 2022
Exports and tax revenues play an important role in the economic activities of a country.
Exports will generate foreign exchange which will be used to finance imports of raw materials
and capital goods needed in the production process which will form added value. The
aggregation of added value generated by all production units in the economy is the value of the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Taxes are used to carry out development in Indonesia. The
Ministry of Industry through the policy of the acceleration and expansion strategy of agro-
industry seeks to encourage the development of supporting infrastructure in line with the
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Master Plan for the Expansion and Acceleration of Indonesian Economic Development
(MP3EI).
Table 2. Development of Exchange Rate, CPO Selling Price, Indonesia's GDP Per
Capita and Indonesia's
Source: BI data presented by researcher, 2022
One of the strategies taken by the government is to provide disincentives in the form of
export duties on exported raw goods. The export tax policy is considered as one of the most
effective policy options to control the export of agro-industry raw materials. To prevent
shortages in raw material availability, the Indonesian government implemented a crude palm
oil (CPO) export tax policy from 5% in January to 40% in April and 60% in July 1998. This
tax stipulation was adjusted to changes in current world prices. that. One of the
implementations of the export tax is to maintain the availability and stabilization of domestic
cooking oil prices and the price of cooking oil begins to fall, the government again reduces
export taxes gradually (Munadi 2007). In addition to exports and tax reven Boediono ues, the
exchange rate (exchange rate) also affects the magnitude of economic growth. In an open
economy, the growth rate will also be influenced by the exchange rate. The effect of the
exchange rate on the growth rate can be seen either through the aggregate supply (AS) channel,
namely through the formation of capital and aggregate demand (AD), namely through
international trade and investment transactions.
Based on the background of the problems above, it can be identified the problems of
Indonesia's economic growth, namely Indonesia's economic growth rate was corrected during
the Covid-19 pandemic era; export tax revenues have increased; one of which was contributed
by the oil palm plantation sector commodity during the Covid-19 pandemic era; the production
performance of the agricultural and plantation sectors grew positively in the midst of the Covid-
19 pandemic era; the price of oil palm plantation commodities experienced an upward trend
during the Covid-19 pandemic era; the exchange rate (exchange rate) experienced fluctuations
in the weakening of the rupiah currency during the Covid-19 pandemic era; and the export
performance of oil palm plantation commodities has increased in the midst of the Covid-19
pandemic era, so from the identification of these problems, problems can be formulated,
namely:
1. How is the effect of production, selling price, exchange rate and exports of palm oil
commodities simultaneously on Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2012-2021?
2. How is the effect of production, selling price, exchange rate and exports of palm oil
commodities partially on Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2012-2021?
3. How is the effect of production, selling price, exchange rate and exports of palm oil
commodities simultaneously on Indonesia's export tax revenue in 2012-2021?
4. How is the effect of production, selling price, exchange rate and exports of palm oil
commodities partially on Indonesia's export tax revenue in 2012-2021?
METHOD
Framework consists of relevant variables, the relationship between variables, a framework
of thought, and the formulation of the research model (Jaya 2020). The framework is based on
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theoretical studies and the results of previous research. The theoretical studies in question are
economic growth theory, export tax revenue theory, production theory, price theory, currency
exchange rate theory and commodity export theory.
Operational Definition in the study consisted of the independent variable (X) and the
dependent variable (Y), namely:
1. Production (X1) is the number (volume) of units produced from the Indonesian
plantation sector in the form of oil palm.
2. Selling Price (X2) is the commodity price prevailing in the international market in the
context of selling exports of agricultural and plantation commodities.
3. Exchange Rate (X3) is the exchange rate of other countries' currencies which are
converted into Rupiah.
4. Export (X4) is a foreign trade activity in the form of selling domestic crude palm oil
(CPO) products in the currency of another country.
5. GDP of Agriculture and Plantation Sector (Y1) is Indonesia's long-term per capita
output of economic activity accumulated from year to year, as measured by Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita.
6. Export Tax Revenue (Y2) is tax revenue sourced from commodity export activities or
foreign trade.
Relevant Variables In this study, the production of oil palm plantations, the selling price
of crude palm oil (CPO) commodities, the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar and the export
value of crude palm oil (CPO) commodities function as independent variables. Meanwhile,
Indonesia's GDP per capita and Indonesia's export tax revenues function as dependent
variables. The theoretical framework and the relationship between variables are described as
follows (Sanyoto 2018).
1. The Relationship of Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates, Exports to Indonesia's
GDP
One form of international business activity is export. Export is selling products made in
one's own country for use or resale in other countries (Griffin and Pustay 2015). Exports
generally play a significant role in contributing to the country's foreign exchange reserves.
Indonesia is one of the countries that carry out export activities. The diversity of export
commodities exported by Indonesia is due to the diversity of abundant resources owned
by Indonesia. One of the leading export commodities of Indonesian plantations is the
export of palm oil in crude palm oil (CPO) products. Indonesia as a CPO commodity
exporting country must be able to compete with other countries (Malaysia, Thailand,
Colombia, and Nigeria) in order to become the main commodity of choice chosen by palm
oil importing countries, rubber, and white pepper. Increasing exports of palm oil (CPO)
can be done by focusing on the factors that affect exports. Several factors that affect the
GDP of the agricultural and plantation sectors are the volume of production, international
selling prices, exchange rates (exchange rates), and the value of exports and imports.
Production is one of the factors that affect exports. Production is an activity that converts
inputs into outputs (Sugiarto et al. 2005). Input can be in the form of capital, labor, land,
and natural resources, while output is a product that has added value after production. The
quality and quantity of products produced can affect the demand and supply of exports.
International selling prices are another factor affecting exports. If the price of an item
increases, then producers tend to increase the number of goods produced (Rahardja and
Manurung 2010). Fluctuations in the international selling price of palm oil (CPO) will
affect CPO exports from Indonesia. Another factor that deserves attention because it
affects other exports is the exchange rate (exchange rate). The exchange rate can affect the
purchasing power of importers as well as the cost of producing commodities carried out
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by exporters. Exchange rate fluctuations will cause instability in the export market.
Indonesia as an exporting country needs to make an appropriate exchange rate policy in
order to trigger an increase in exports. Mistakes in decision-making in making policies
will be able to reduce exports which can harm Indonesia. The export of palm oil (CPO)
commodities is a very promising prospect for Indonesia. The increase in the export of these
commodities can encourage state income obtained through exports or as state foreign
exchange. This promising prospect in order to be realized requires careful planning and
supervision. Exports of palm oil products (CPO) are also required to increase
competitiveness in order to be able to compete with other palm oil exporting countries.
2. Relationship of Production, Selling Price, Exchange Rate and Export to Export Tax
Revenue.The tendency to increase the volume of palm oil production has an impact on the
export of upstream products from Indonesia, namely crude palm oil (CPO), which has
prompted the government to implement an export tax imposition policy. The application
of the Export Tax in Indonesia aims to maintain the availability of raw materials and
encourage the downstreaming of the domestic palm oil industry (Warta Bea Cukai, 2015).
Export taxes are usually applied by countries that still rely on primary raw materials in
international trade with the aim of protecting the need for raw materials in the domestic
market. Export taxes are levied on commodity prices on goods sold to world markets. This
policy research on the impact on price changes has been carried out with varying results
depending on the type of country implementing it. Export taxes applied by countries with
small market shares do not affect international markets, in contrast to countries with large
market shares that are able to affect international market conditions (Solleder 2013). The
economic development targets set by the government are directed at promoting economic
growth. The decline in economic growth will be transmitted into a decrease in tax revenue.
Efforts to support the achievement of economic development targets are to maintain the
stability of macroeconomic indicators, one of which is the macroeconomic indicator of the
rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) (Ministry of Finance, 2008). A weakening exchange
rate against foreign currencies or a depreciation will result in an increase in the prices of
goods and services consumed by the public. This will affect people's purchasing power
because the price of goods and services has increased while the level of people's income
tends to be constant or fixed. People's purchasing power or consumption which is
influenced by the rupiah exchange rate will ultimately affect tax revenues. Research
conducted by Salawati (2008) shows that the exchange rate has a significant effect on VAT
receipts. Research conducted by Hamzah and Suryowibowo (2005) and Agbeyegbe et al.
(2006) also shows that the exchange rate has an effect on tax revenue. Research conducted
by Salawati (2008) shows that the exchange rate has a significant effect on VAT receipts.
Research conducted by Hamzah and Suryowibowo (2005) and (Agbeyegbe, Stotsky, and
WoldeMariam 2006) also shows that the exchange rate has an effect on tax revenue.
Research conducted by Salawati (2008) shows that the exchange rate has a significant
effect on VAT receipts. Research conducted by Hamzah and Suryowibowo (2005) and
(Agbeyegbe et al. 2006) also shows that the exchange rate has an effect on tax revenue.
3. Research Paradigm based on theoretical studies, previous research, relevant variables, and
descriptions of relationships between variables, the research paradigm as a model of
functional relationships between variables in this study is as follows:
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Figure 1. Research Framework
Information :
: Partial Influence
: Simultaneous Effect
4. Model Formulation functional relationship between variables, as shown by the research
paradigm above, is formulated as a recursive linear function, namely:
Y1 = β01 + β11X1 + β21X2 + β31X3 + β41X4 + ɛ1 (1)
where : β11, …, β41 > 0
Y2 = β02 + β12X2 + β22X3 + β32X4 + β42X4+ ɛ2 (2)
where : β12, …, β42 > 0
Information :
X1 : Production
X2 : Selling Price
X3 : Exchange rate
X4 : Export
Y1 : Indonesia's GDP Per capita
Y2 : Export Tax Revenue
The model formulation above shows the form of an econometric causal relationship
between palm oil production factors, the selling price of CPO commodities, the rupiah
exchange rate against the dollar and the export value of CPO commodities that affect
Indonesia's GDP per capita and Indonesia's export tax revenue.
5. Hypothesis based on the formulation of the problem and the framework of the research
hypothesis can be derived as follows:
a. Production, selling prices, exchange rates, and exports have a simultaneous effect on
Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2012-2021.
b. Production, selling prices, exchange rates, and exports have a partial positive effect
on Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2012-2021.
c. Production, selling price, exchange rate and exports have a simultaneous effect on
Indonesia's export tax revenue in 2012-2021.
d. Production, selling price, exchange rate and exports partially positive effect on
Indonesia's export tax revenue in 2012-2021.
6. Data Collection Technique used in this study is secondary data which is panel data, which
is a combination of cross section data and time series data. The data collected is sourced
from the Central Statistics Agency, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Trade, BAPPEBTI,
online mass media and other sources of information published to the public using data.
The data available is annual data, between the years 2012-2021. The selection of this time
period is based on the consideration that it covers the conditions and situation of the
Indonesian economy, especially the 10 largest palm oil producing provinces in Indonesia,
both before the Covid-19 pandemic and in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic era. The
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data used in this study include data on oil palm production, commodity selling prices, the
rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, the value of commodity exports, Indonesia's GDP
per capita, and Indonesia's export tax revenue for 2012-2021.
7. Analysis Design used is Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (Multivariate Linear
Regression Analysis) to test hypotheses about the effect of production, selling price,
exchange rate and export of palm oil on Indonesia's GDP per capita and Indonesia's export
tax revenue in 2012-2021. Regression model is used to analyze the relationship pattern of
several independent variables with the dependent variable for the purpose of predicting
changes in the dependent variable on the basis of changes in the independent variables.
Regarding the adequacy of data, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method requires that
the amount of data used must be greater than the total number of variables involved in the
model (Gujarati 2022). The model in this study consists of four independent variables
(production, selling price, exchange rate and export value of palm oil commodities) and
two dependent variables (Indonesian GDP per capita and Indonesian export tax revenue).
Thus, the amount of data is n where n > 6 has met the adequacy of the data as required. In
this study the amount of data used is n = 100. The data processing process for all analyzes
in this study was carried out using the e-views 10 software program. The assumptions that
are prerequisites for using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) in linear regression are classical
assumptions regarding the residual (error term) or disturbance term that must be met. Tests
regarding the presence or absence of violations of these assumptions are carried out before
the model output is analyzed. The assumptions tested include the normality of the residual
distribution, the absence of multicollinearity situations that damage the model, the absence
of autocorrelation situations, and the absence of heteroscedasticity
8. Hypothesis Testing Design of the regression equations in each model were tested by means
of multiple linear regression coefficients, either simultaneously or partially with the
following statistical hypotheses: Hypothesis 1:
H0 : β11 = β21 = β31 = β41 = 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports
have no simultaneous effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita.
H1 : there is at least one βi1 = 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports
have a simultaneous effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita.
Hypothesis 2:
H0 : βi1 < 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports have no partial
positive effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita.
H1 : βi1 > 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports have a partial
positive effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita.
Hypothesis 3:
H0 : β12 = β22 = β32 = β42 = 0; Production, Selling Price, Exchange Rate and Export
have no simultaneous effect on Export Tax Revenue.
H1 : there is at least one βi2 = 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports
have a simultaneous effect on Export Tax Revenue.
Hypothesis 4:
H0 : βi2 < 0; Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports have no partial
positive effect on Export Tax Revenue.
H1 : βi2 > 0; Production, Selling Price, Exchange Rate and Export partially positive effect
on Export Tax Revenue.
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The research hypothesis of the effect is simultaneously tested using the F test. H0 is
rejected if Fcount > Ftable (at significance level = 0.05 and degrees of freedom db1 = k
and db2 = n – k – 1; where n = sample size and k = number independent variable) or if the
probability value of statistical error (p-value) < 0.05. In the opposite condition, H0 is
accepted. The sub-hypothesis of the influence research hypothesis was partially tested
using the t-test. H0 is rejected if tcount > ttable (at significance level = 0.05, 1-sided test
type and degrees of freedom db = n – k – 1) or if p-value < 0.05. On the other hand, H0 is
accepted.
9. Model Feasibility Test Design measured through the characteristics of suitability as an
econometric model (the goodness of an econometric model). Characteristics that can be
expected from an econometric model as referred to by (Koutsoyiannis 1977) and
(Wirasasmita 2008), are as follows:
a. Theoretical plausibility. Whether the post-estimated or post-test hypotheses are in line
with the expectations of the pre-estimated hypotheses and are supported by the
relevant theory.
b. Accuracy of the estimates of the parameters. Whether the hypotheses or post-
estimated model parameters are accurate or not, which is indicated by a low
probability of statistical error (p-value), where p-value < 0.05).
c. Explanatory ability. Do post-estimation models have the ability to explain the
interrelationships between economic phenomena marked by a low standard error of
estimations (SE), where SE < (1/2 the value of the estimated parameter).
d. Forecasting ability. Does the post-estimated model have predictive ability which is
characterized by a high coefficient of determination, where R2 > 50%.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A. The Effect of Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates and Exports on Indonesia's
GDP Per Capita
Before being analyzed, the influence model is first tested for conformity with outlier
analysis and tested for classical assumptions for multiple linear regression which are the
requirements. The results of the outlier analysis show that there is no outlier data in the
existing equation. Likewise, the results of the classical assumption test also show that all
assumptions have been met, namely the data are normally distributed and there are no
situations of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.
Table 3 Equation of Model I
The multiple linear regression equation (model I) above for the effect of production,
selling price, exchange rate, and exports on Indonesia's GDP per capita is as follows:
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Y1t = α + β1X1t + β2X2t + β3X3t + β4X4t + ɛt (1.1)
Y1t = -6.417 + 0.528X1t + 0.539X2t + 1.055X3t – 0.522X4t + ɛt
X3 : Exchange rate in year t (in IDR per USD)
X4 : Export Value in year t (in IDR)
β1, β2, β3 > 0 (positive) and β4 < 0 (negative)
Model I above has a coefficient of determination (R-squared) of 89.18%. This value
shows the magnitude of the effect of production, selling prices, exchange rates, and exports
simultaneously on Indonesia's GDP per capita is 89.18%. The results of the simultaneous
test of the effect of production, selling prices, exchange rates, and exports on Indonesia's
GDP per capita through the F test give an F value of 195.672 with p-value = 0.0000. This
means that the p-value is smaller than = 0.05. Thus, it was decided to reject H1 and accept
research hypothesis 1 regarding the simultaneous influence of production, selling prices,
exchange rates, and exports on Indonesia's GDP per capita.
Based on the results above, the constant value (C or α) is -6.417 which indicates that
if Production (X1), Selling Price (X2), Exchange Rate (X3), and Export (X4) are zero (0)
units, then the average mathematical value is Indonesia's average GDP per capita is -6.417
IDR. This means that the regression coefficient of Production (X1) is positive, which is
0.528. This means that every 1 tonne increase in production will be followed by an increase
in Indonesia's GDP per capita of 0.528 IDR, assuming ceteris paribus (the value of other
causal variables is constant). The regression coefficient value of the Selling Price (X2) is
positive, which is 0.539. This means that every increase in the selling price of IDR. 1 per
tonne will be followed by an increase in Indonesia's GDP per capita of 0.539 IDR. The
regression coefficient value of the exchange rate (X3) is positive, which is 1.055. This
means that every increase in the exchange rate of IDR. 1 per USD will be followed by an
increase in Indonesia's GDP per capita of 1.055 IDR. And the regression coefficient value
of Export (X4) is negative, which is -0.522. This means that every increase in exports by
IDR. 1 will reduce Indonesia's GDP per capita by 0.522 IDR.
The results of the partial effect of production, selling prices, and exchange rates on
Indonesia's GDP per capita through the t-test give the results of t-values of 10,876, 10,593,
and 17,484 with p-values of each = 0.0000. This means that the p-value for Production,
Selling Price, and Exchange Rate is smaller than = 0.05. Thus, it was decided that
Production, Selling Price, and Exchange Rate had a positive and partially significant effect
on Indonesia's GDP per capita. While the results of the partial export effect test on
Indonesia's GDP per capita through the t-test gave the results of a t-value of -10,533 with
p-value = 0.0000. This means that the value of the Export regression coefficient is
negative. Thus, it was decided that exports had no significant positive effect partially on
Indonesia's GDP per capita. Based on the results of the partial effect analysis above, it was
decided to reject H0 and partially accept research hypothesis 2. Production, Selling Price,
and Exchange Rate partially have a significant positive effect on Indonesia's GDP per
capita, but this is not the case with exports.
B. Effect of Production, Selling Price, Exchange Rate and Export on Export Tax
Revenue
Before being analyzed, the influence model is first tested for conformity with outlier
analysis and tested for classical assumptions for multiple linear regression which are the
requirements. The results of the outlier analysis show that there is no outlier data in the
existing equation. Likewise, the results of the classical assumption test also show that all
assumptions have been met, namely the data are normally distributed and there are no
situations of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.
Table 4 Equation Model II
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The multiple linear regression equation (model II) above for the effect of production,
selling price, exchange rate, and exports on Export Tax Revenue is as follows:
Y2t = α + β1X1t + β2X2t + β3X3t + β4X4t + ɛt (2.1)
Y2t = 54.854 + 0.463X1t + 2.907X2t – 4.710X3t – 0.466X4t + ɛt
Where :
Y2 : Export Tax Revenue year t (in IDR)
X1 : Production year t (in Tons)
X2 : Selling Price in year t (in IDR per Ton)
X3 : Exchange rate in year t (in IDR per USD)
X4 : Export Value in year t (in IDR)
β1, β2 > 0 (positive) and β3, β4 < 0 (negative)
Model II above has a coefficient of determination (R-squared) of 76.67%. This value
shows the magnitude of the effect of production, selling price, exchange rate, and exports
simultaneously on export tax revenues amounting to 76.67%. The results of the
simultaneous test of the effect of production, selling prices, exchange rates, and exports on
export tax revenue through the F test give an F value of 78.046 with p-value = 0.0000.
This means that the p-value is smaller than = 0.05. Thus, it was decided to reject H1 and
accept research hypothesis 3 regarding the simultaneous effect of production, selling price,
exchange rate, and exports on export tax revenues. Based on the above results obtained a
constant value (C or α) of 54.854 which indicates that if Production (X1), Selling Price
(X2), Exchange Rate (X3), and Export (X4) has a value of zero (0) units, then the
mathematical value of the average Export Tax Revenue is 54.854 IDR. This means that
the regression coefficient of Production (X1) is positive, which is 0.463. This means that
every 1 tonne increase in production will be followed by an increase in export tax revenue
of 0.463 IDR, assuming ceteris paribus (the value of other causal variables is constant).
The regression coefficient value of the Selling Price (X2) is positive, which is 2.907. This
means that every increase in the selling price of IDR 1 per tonne will be followed by an
increase in export tax revenue of IDR 2.907. The regression coefficient value of the
Exchange Rate (X3) is negative, which is -4.710. This means that every increase in the
exchange rate of IDR. 1 per USD will reduce export tax revenues by 4,710 IDR. And the
regression coefficient value of Export (X4) is negative, which is -0.466. That is, every
increase in exports by IDR. 1 will reduce export tax revenues by 0.466 IDR.
The results of the partial test of the effect of selling prices on export tax revenues
through the t-test gave the results of a t-value of 1.655 with p-value = 0.0000. This means
that the p-value for the Selling Price is smaller than = 0.05. Thus, it was decided that the
selling price had a positive and significant partial effect on export tax revenues. While the
results of the partial effect of Production, Exchange and Export on export tax revenues
through the t-test give the results of t-values of 1.655 (p-value = 0.1012), -13.545 (p-value
= 0.0000), and -1.630 (p-value = 0.1064). This means that the regression coefficient of
Production is positive, while the Exchange and Exports are negative. Thus, it was decided
that Production had a positive but not partially significant effect on Export Tax Revenue.
While the course, and Exports have no positive but partially significant effect on Export
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Tax Revenue. Based on the results of the partial effect analysis above, it was decided to
reject H0 and partially accept research hypothesis 4. Production and Selling Prices partially
have a significant positive effect on Export Tax Revenue, but this is not the case with
Exchange Rates and Exports.
Discussion
Production, Selling Prices, Exchange Rates, and Exports have a significant
simultaneous effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita. Partially, production, selling price, and
exchange rate have a significant positive effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita. Meanwhile,
exports have no significant positive effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita. The direction of
the negative influence of exports indicates that increasing exports is counterproductive to
Indonesia's GDP growth per capita. This means that the government needs to review the
palm oil (CPO) export policy carried out during the Covid-19 pandemic era, although the
agricultural sector's GDP can still grow relatively positively. Production, Selling Prices,
Exchange Rates, and Exports have a significant simultaneous effect on Export Tax
Revenue. Partially, production and selling prices have a significant positive effect on
export tax revenues. Meanwhile, Exchange and Exports have no significant positive effect
on Export Tax Revenue. The direction of the negative influence of the Exchange Rate and
Exports shows that an increase in the exchange rate and exports are counterproductive to
Indonesia's export tax revenue. This means that fluctuations in the exchange rate will affect
palm oil (CPO) export activities on the trade balance so that it has an impact on the
contribution of Indonesia's export tax revenue, especially in the midst of the Covid-19
pandemic era.
Model Feasibility Test Results
The results of the model feasibility test show that the research model has met the
goodness of an econometric model or the expected characteristics.
1) Theoretical plausibility. The research model produces test results that are in line
with expectations based on the theory that is the basis of his thinking. The direction of the
influence of the majority of the factors that influence the palm oil commodity on
Indonesia's GDP per capita and export tax revenue is positive according to theory, while
the direction of its negative influence can be explained.
2) Accuracy of the estimate of the parameters. The research model produces a
regression coefficient estimator that is accurate or unbiased and significant. The analysis
assumptions are met and the probability of statistical error of all simultaneous influence
models is very low (p-value < α = 0.05). Likewise partially, the majority of independent
variables have p-value < α = 0.05. As for the insignificant partial effect (p-value > α =
0.05) of several independent variables, it can be explained. However, based on its overall
accuracy, the model under study is still feasible to maintain.
3) Explanatory ability. The research model has a high ability to explain the
relationship between the economic phenomena studied. The majority of the Standard Error
(SE) of the model is less than ½ times the absolute value of the regression coefficient (SE
< ½ βi).
Model I Test Results:
Model II Test Results:
- SE Production = 0.049 < ½ (0.528)
- SE Selling price = 0.051 < ½ (0.539)
- SE Exchange rate = 0.060 < ½ (1.055)
- SE Export = 0.050 > ½ (-0.522)
- SE Production = 0.280 > ½ (0.463)
- SE Selling price = 0.293 < ½ (2.907)
- SE Exchange rate = 0.348 > ½ (-4.710)
- SE Export = 0.286 > ½ (-0.466)
4) Forecasting abilities. The research model has a high level of predictive ability
on the behavior of the effect variable as shown by the high coefficient of determination of
Determination Analysis Of Indonesian Palm Oil Commodities In The Covid-19 Pandemic Era On
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the majority of models that exceeds 50% (Model I: Adjusted R2 = 88.72% and Model II:
Adjusted R2 = 75.69%).
The existence of theoretical plausibility and explanatory ability characteristics in the
model shows that the model has been tested to have academic uses. Meanwhile, the
characteristics of accuracy and forecasting ability indicate that the model has been tested
to have practical uses for policy determination.
CONCLUSION
The increase in palm oil production, commodity selling prices, the rupiah exchange rate
against the dollar, and commodity exports together have a very high ability to encourage
Indonesia's GDP growth per capita, and the increase in palm oil production, commodity selling
prices, and the rupiah exchange rate partially against the dollar is a determining factor of
increasing Indonesia's GDP growth per capita. Meanwhile, the increase in palm oil production,
commodity selling price, rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, and commodity exports
together have a very high ability to increase the contribution of Indonesia's export tax revenue,
and the increase in palm oil production and commodity selling prices are partially the
determining factors of the increasing contribution of Indonesia's export tax revenue.
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